March 11, 2008

Connecticut Housing Market: Picking Up Steam?

In the United States, the housing market is still locked in a slump that began a year ago. In Connecticut, it’s more of a slowdown than a crash - and it may be pulling out of that downward curve.

Lisa Kidder, director of government relations for the Connecticut Home Builders Association, says the Connecticut housing market is showing signs of recovery.
“We’re still down overall,” she said. “But we’re seeing things aren’t as bad here as they are in the rest of the country. And within the state, there are goods pockets of activity.”



Likewise, Realtors said they think Connecticut mortgage activity will straighten out this summer, after being overheated for several years, then hitting the wall in 2006.

“Put a good price on it, and you should be able to sell your house,” said Karen Consalvo, Realtor with McCaffrey Realty Professionals of Brookfield.

“There was a hiss in the balloon, not a bursting,” said Betty Hensel, of Davis & Hoyt/Hensel Realtors in Brookfield.

“There’s still a good market for sellers who are realistic about it.”

Kidder said she’s buoyed by statistics for new home construction in April. They show 743 home builder permits issued in the state that month, compared to 484 in March.

More importantly, she said, more building permits were issued this April than in April 2006, when the number was 691 permits, indicating more housing starts.

“I know you can’t tell anything from one month,” she said. “But let’s see how things go this summer.”

Others don’t share Kidder’s optimism… or her good numbers.

In Danbury, Sean Hearty, director of the city’s Permit Center, said housing starts are down “substantially” in the face of rising home loan costs.

Hearty said there are two places in the city - The Reserve and Timber Oaks - where a burst of new housing units skews the numbers.

“But overall, it’s going down,” he said of new home construction in the city.

That’s because the housing boom of a few years ago put a lot of new houses and condominiums on the market as Connecticut home prices surged. Until they are sold, home builders are holding back on digging new foundations.

Kidder said that may be because during the last housing boom, in the late 1980s, many home builders overextended themselves only to get burned after the market cooled.

“This time, they learned their lesson,” she said.

Linda Hannah, president of the Ridgefield Board of Realtors and a Realtor with Century 21 Landmark Properties in Ridgefield, said agents are still dealing with a big inventory of homes on the market.

“We have 317 homes on the market - 24 of those have a bid accepted on them,” she said. “Normally, that number is 200 to 225.”

“There’s an oversupply,” said Realtor Matt Rose, of Century 21 Lombardi in Danbury.

But Hannah also said in the first quarter of 2006, 54 single-family homes were sold in Ridgefield. In the first quarter of 2007, that number was up to 67.

This may be because home mortgage loan applicants are unwilling or unable to pay, and sellers are no longer trying to get 2005 prices.

Hannah said in 2006 an average price for a single-family home in Ridgefield was about $934,000. In 2007, that price has dropped to about $855,000.

Hensel also said sellers - who a few years ago could market homes without having to worry about dust or crabgrass - have learned they have to prettify the place.

“You have to put on your best face,” she said.

“The house has to look perfect. There can’t be any clutter. The lawn has to be mowed, there have to be flowers on the front step. A couple of years ago, that didn’t matter.”

But Hannah said because mortgage interest rates are still relatively low by historical standards, buyers are starting to show up.

“I’m seeing good signs,” she said. “I’m hearing phones ring in the office.”

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Colorado’s Housing Market Splits Three Ways

It’s not easy being Colorado’s housing market these days. The record number of foreclosures in the state, particularly in the Denver area, has given it a bad rap. And some say that foreclosure flap has even affected the sale of luxury homes in the hills above Denver and Boulder.

But Colorado’s housing market is more than just foreclosures. Yes, home sales for the generally middle class in Colorado are awash in such foreclosure problems right now, enough so in fact that the state Legislature is looking at ways to help, but other housing markets in the state are doing just fine.



Both the Denver Post and the Aspen Times report that home sales in Pitkin County, home of Aspen and Snowmass, were up 19 percent in 2006 to a total of $2.69 billion. The average price for a single-family home in Aspen hit $5.44 million in 2006, up more than $1 million from 2005. Buyers are generally wealthy and from out-of-state, and space for building is limited, say officials.

Also in Pitkin County, officials report that so-called “worker housing” or affordable housing sales hit $21.6 million in 2006, the highest it’s been in at least five years. Granted, it’s just a mere fraction of the “regular” housing market in Pitkin County, but this housing market is much different.

Worker or affordable housing is generally subsidized by state, federal or other funding sources, and doesn’t operate in the same kind of market. Prices are capped, appreciation is limited and the number of units for sale is based on how many openings there are in the system. Buyers have to apply and qualify, and units generally aren’t available as second homes or investment properties.

As written in the Aspen Times: “Four three-bedroom, two-bath units [at the Little Ajax housing project were] priced at $199,000, each attracted 40 prospective buyers who competed in lottery for a chance to buy one of the condos. Another nine three-bedroom, two-bathroom condos in the complex, priced at $293,000, each attracted 29 lottery
participants.”

Such a system helps those with limited incomes purchase a place of their own, but getting into one isn’t easy, given the limited supply and the numerous qualifications. But the lure of owning has pushed many people to sign mortgages that aren’t as friendly. And that’s where the foreclosure problem begins.

Democrats and Republicans in the Colorado Legislature are looking at bills to address the problem, and many are focusing on the culture of lending: Who is appraising homes and who is offering what kind of mortgages?

The articles say nothing of foreclosure or other botched financial obligations associated with the worker housing projects. So maybe another avenue for lawmakers is to find ways to add more worker housing projects, to lessen the demand for the mortgages that got so many people into trouble in the first place.

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It’s A Terrible Time To Buy

Why?

  1. Prices still disconnected from fundamentals. House prices are still much too high, far beyond any historically known relationship to rents or salaries. Yearly rents are 3% of purchase price. Mortgage rates are 6.5%, so it costs more than twice as much to borrow money to buy a house than it does to rent the same thing. Worse, total owner costs including taxes, maintenance, and insurance are about 9%, which is three times the cost of renting. Salaries cannot cover mortgages. Anyone who buys now will suffer losses immediately, and for the next several years at least, as prices keep falling.
  2. Buyers borrowed too much money and cannot pay the interest. Now there are mass foreclosures, and senators are talking about taking your money to pay for your neighbor’s McMansion, even though no one in the US has been made homeless by foreclosure. In fact, forclosed owners end up far better off: they go reap large savings every month, since it costs less than half as much money in rent as they were paying to “own” the very same thing. Banks happily loaned whatever amount borrowers wanted as long as the banks could then sell the loan, pushing the default risk onto Fannie Mae (taxpayers) or onto buyers of mortgage-backed bonds. Now that it has become clear that a trillion dollars in mortgage loans will not be repaid, Fannie Mae is under pressure not to buy risky loans and investors do not want mortgage-backed bonds. This means that the money available for mortgages is falling, and house prices will keep falling, probably for 5 years or more. This is not just a subprime problem. All mortgages will be harder to get.
  3. A return to traditional lending standards means a return to traditional prices, which are far below current prices.

  4. Interest rates increases. When rates go from 5% to 7%, that’s a 40% increase in the amount of interest a buyer has to pay. House prices must drop proportionately to compensate. The housing bust still has a very long way to go. For example, if interest rates are 5%, then $1000 per month ($12,000 per year) pays for an interest-only loan of $240,000. If interest rates rise to 7%, then that same $1000 per month pays for an interest-only loan of only $171,428.

    Recent lower Fed inter-bank lending rates do not directly affect adjustable mortgages rates. Most adjustable rates are linked to LIBOR, which is set in London. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate actually went UP after the Fed’s rate cut, on expectations of higher inflation caused by the Fed.

  5. Extreme use of leverage. Leverage means using debt to amplify gain. Most people forget that losses get amplified as well. If a buyer puts 10% down and the house goes down 10%, he has lost 100% of his money on paper. If he has to sell due to job loss or an interest rate hike, he’s bankrupt in the real world. It’s worse than that. House prices do not even have to fall to cause big losses. The cost of selling a house is 6%. On a $300,000 house, that’s $18,000 lost even if prices just stay flat. So a 4% decline in housing prices bankrupts all those with 10% equity or less.
  6. Shortage of first-time buyers. High house prices have been very unfair to new families, especially those with children. It is literally impossible for them to buy at current prices, yet government leaders never talk about how lower house prices are good for pretty much everyone, instead preferring to sacrifice American families to make sure bankers have plenty of debt to earn interest on. Every “affordability” program drives prices higher by creating more debt for buyers to use. To really help Americans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    should be completely eliminated. The government keeps prices unaffordable through programs that increase buyer debt, and then pretends to be interested in affordable housing. No one in government except Ron Paul ever talks about the obvious solution: less debt and lower house prices. The real result of every “affordability” program is to keep you in debt for the rest of your life so that you have to keep working. Lower house prices would liberate millions of people from decades of labor each.
  7. Surplus of speculators. Nationally, 25% of houses bought the last few years were pure speculation, not houses to live in, and the speculators are going into foreclosure in large numbers now. Even the National Association of House Builders admits that “Investor-driven price appreciation looms over some housing markets.”
  8. Fraud. It has become common for speculators take out a loan for up to 50% more than the price of the house he intends to buy. The appraiser goes along with the inflated price, or he does not ever get called back to do another appraisal. The speculator then pays the seller his asking price (much less than the loan amount), and uses the extra money to make mortgage payments on the unreasonably large mortgage until he can find a buyer to take the house off his hands for more than he paid. Worked great during the boom. Now it doesn’t work at all, unless the speculator simply skips town with the extra money.
  9. Baby boomers retiring. There are 77 million Americans born between 1946-1964. One-third have zero retirement savings. The oldest are 62. The only money they have is equity in a house, so they must sell.
  10. Huge glut of empty housing. Builders are being forced to drop prices even faster than owners. Builders have huge excess inventory that they cannot sell, and more houses are completed each day, making the housing slump worse.
  11. The best summary explanation, from Business Week: “Today’s housing prices are predicated on an impossible combination: the strong growth in income and asset values of a strong economy, plus the ultra-low interest rates of a weak economy. Either the economy’s long-term prospects will get worse or rates will rise. In either scenario, housing will weaken.”

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